File(s) under permanent embargo
The Falsifiability of Actual Decision-Making Models
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-22, 02:29 authored by Heathcote, A, Wagenmakers, E-J, Brown, SDJones and Dzhafarov (2014) provided a useful service in pointing out that some assumptions of modern decision-making models require additional scrutiny. Their main result, however, is not surprising: If an infinitely complex model was created by assigning its parameters arbitrarily flexible distributions, this new model would be able to fit any observed data perfectly. Such a hypothetical model would be unfalsifiable. This is exactly why such models have never been proposed in over half a century of model development in decision making. Additionally, the main conclusion drawn from this result—that the success of existing decision-making models can be attributed to assumptions about parameter distributions— is wrong.
History
Publication title
Psychological ReviewVolume
121Issue
4Pagination
676-678ISSN
0033-295XDepartment/School
Tasmanian School of MedicinePublisher
Amer Psychological AssocPlace of publication
750 First St Ne, Washington, USA, Dc, 20002-4242Repository Status
- Restricted