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Tools for integrating range change, extinction risk and climate change information into conservation management

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-18, 06:44 authored by Fordham, DA, Akcakaya, HR, Araujo, MB, Keith, DA, Barry BrookBarry Brook
Ecological niche models (ENMs) are the primary tool used to describe and forecast the potential influence of climate change on biodiversity. However, ENMs do not directly account for important biological and landscape processes likely to affect range dynamics at a variety of spatial scales. Recent advances to link ENMs with population models have focused on the fundamental step of integrating dispersal and metapopulation dynamics into forecasts of species geographic ranges. Here we use a combination of novel analyses and a synthesis of findings from published plant and animal case studies to highlight three seldom recognised, yet important, advantages of linking ENMs with demographic modelling approaches: 1) they provide direct measures of extinction risk in addition to measures of vulnerability based on change in the potential range area or total habitat suitability. 2) They capture life-history traits that permit population density to vary in different ways in response to key spatial drivers, conditioned by the processes of global change. 3) They can be used to explore and rank the cost effectiveness of regional conservation alternatives and demographically oriented management interventions. Given these advantages, we argue that coupled methods should be used preferentially where data permits and when conservation management decisions require intervention, prioritization, or direct estimates of extinction risk.

History

Publication title

Ecography

Volume

36

Issue

9

Pagination

956-964

ISSN

0906-7590

Department/School

School of Natural Sciences

Publisher

Blackwell Munksgaard

Place of publication

35 Norre Sogade, Po Box 2148, Copenhagen, Denmark, Dk-1016

Rights statement

Copyright 2013 The Authors

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Ecosystem adaptation to climate change

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