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How interactions between animal movement and landscape processes modify local range dynamics and extinction risk


Fordham, DA and Shoemaker, KT and Shumaker, NH and Akcakaya, HR and Clisby, N and Brook, BW, How interactions between animal movement and landscape processes modify local range dynamics and extinction risk, Biology Letters, 10, (5) Article 0198. ISSN 1744-9561 (2014) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

2014 The Author(s)

DOI: doi:10.1098/rsbl.2014.0198


Forecasts of range dynamics now incorporate many of the mechanisms and interactions that drive species distributions. However, connectivity continues to be simulated using overly simple distance-based dispersal models with little consideration of how the individual behaviour of dispersing organisms interacts with landscape structure (functional connectivity). Here, we link an individual-based model to a niche-population model to test the implications of this omission. We apply this novel approach to a turtle species inhabiting wetlands which are patchily distributed across a tropical savannah, and whose persistence is threatened by two important synergistic drivers of global change: predation by invasive species and overexploitation. We show that projections of local range dynamics in this study system change substantially when functional connectivity is modelled explicitly. Accounting for functional connectivity in model simulations causes the estimate of extinction risk to increase, and predictions of range contraction to slow. We conclude that models of range dynamics that simulate functional connectivity can reduce an important source of bias in predictions of shifts in species distributions and abundances, especially for organisms whose dispersal behaviours are strongly affected by landscape structure.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:dispersal, global change, individual-based model, metapopulation, population viability analysis, species distribution
Research Division:Biological Sciences
Research Group:Ecology
Research Field:Population ecology
Objective Division:Environmental Management
Objective Group:Terrestrial systems and management
Objective Field:Terrestrial biodiversity
UTAS Author:Brook, BW (Professor Barry Brook)
ID Code:97899
Year Published:2014
Web of Science® Times Cited:17
Deposited By:Biological Sciences
Deposited On:2015-01-21
Last Modified:2017-11-02

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