Projected worldwide disease burden from giant cell arteritis by 2050

Objective: To estimate and project the number of people affected worldwide by giant cell arteritis (GCA) by 2050. Modeling the number of people visually impaired as a result of this disease will help establish the projected morbidity and resource burden.

Methods: A systematic literature review up to December 2013 was conducted using PubMed and ISI Web of Science. Studies reporting an incidence rate for GCA were used to model disease incident cases at regional and national levels. United Nations Population Prospect data were used for population projections. Morbidity burden was established through rates of visual impairment. The associated financial implications were calculated for the United States.

Results: The number of incident cases of GCA will increase secondary to an aging population. By 2050, more than 3 million people will have been diagnosed with GCA in Europe, North America, and Oceania. About 500,000 people will be visually impaired. By 2050, in the United States alone, the estimated cost from visual impairment due to GCA will exceed US$76 billion. Inpatient care for patients with active GCA will total about US$1 billion. Management of steroid-related adverse events will increase costs further, with steroid-induced fractures estimated to total US$6 billion by 2050.

Conclusion: Projecting disease burden for GCA on a global scale allows for optimization of healthcare planning and prioritization of research domains. Additional population-based studies are required to more accurately project worldwide disease burden. Our work highlights the future global disease burden of GCA, and illustrates the associated financial implications.