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SHIPP methodology: Predictive accident modeling approach. Part I: Methodology and model description


Rathnayaka, S and Khan, F and Amyotte, P, SHIPP methodology: Predictive accident modeling approach. Part I: Methodology and model description, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 89, (3) pp. 151-164. ISSN 0957-5820 (2011) [Refereed Article]

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.psep.2011.01.002


Many process accidents are controlled and mitigated before they escalate to major events. Unfortunately some do go on to produce catastrophic consequences. As the size and complexity of processing facilities increases, the risks posed by accidents are alarming. Operational safety could be improved by giving emphasis to the prevention of incidents, rather than relying on control and mitigative measures. This method is referred to as an "inherently safer design approach". To prevent major, though infrequent, event occurrence, it is important to consider accident precursors (symptoms of hazards) such as operational deviations, mishaps, and near misses, in order to prevent events at source rather than controlling or mitigating them. This paper describes a recently developed process accident model with predictive capabilities. It uses a combination of event and fault tree concepts to model the cause-consequence relationship. The model relies on process history, accident precursor information, and accident causation modeling. The model is able to capture the process operational behavior, and update the accident likelihood using the Bayesian updating mechanism. The predictive abilities of the model, along with risk estimation, help to develop and prioritize inherently safer design and operational strategies. This is Part I of two papers, focusing on implementation of this methodology. Part II deals with application of the methodology. © 2011 The Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:Accident precursors; Bayesian updating; Predictive model; Process accident model; Accident causation; Accident likelihood; Accident models; Accident precursors; Bayesian updating; Catastrophic consequences; Fault-trees; Inherently safer design
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Maritime engineering
Research Field:Ocean engineering
Objective Division:Mineral Resources (Excl. Energy Resources)
Objective Group:Environmentally sustainable mineral resource activities
Objective Field:Environmentally sustainable mineral resource activities not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Khan, F (Professor Faisal Khan)
ID Code:94444
Year Published:2011
Web of Science® Times Cited:99
Deposited By:NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics
Deposited On:2014-09-09
Last Modified:2017-10-30

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