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Climate projections for ecologists


Harris, RM and Grose, MR and Lee, G and Bindoff, NL and Porfirio, L and Fox-Hughes, P, Climate projections for ecologists, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 5, (5) pp. 621-637. ISSN 1757-7799 (2014) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2014 John Wiley & Son s, Ltd.

DOI: doi:10.1002/wcc.291


Climate projections are essential for studying ecological responses to climate change, and their use is now common in ecology. However, the lack of integration between ecology and climate science has restricted understanding of the available climate data and their appropriate use. We provide an overview of climate model outputs and issues that need to be considered when applying projections of future climate in ecological studies. We outline the strengths and weaknesses of available climate projections, the uncertainty associated with future projections at different spatial and temporal scales, the differences between available downscaling methods (dynamical, statistical downscaling, and simple scaling of global circulation model output), and the implications these have for ecological models. We describe some of the changes in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including the new representative concentration pathways. We highlight some of the challenges in using model projections in ecological studies and suggest how to effectively address them.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:climate change, projections, ecological impacts
Research Division:Environmental Sciences
Research Group:Climate change impacts and adaptation
Research Field:Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation
Objective Division:Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:Understanding climate change
Objective Field:Climate change models
UTAS Author:Harris, RM (Dr Rebecca Harris)
UTAS Author:Grose, MR (Dr Michael Grose)
UTAS Author:Lee, G (Dr Greg Lee)
UTAS Author:Bindoff, NL (Professor Nathan Bindoff)
ID Code:89676
Year Published:2014
Web of Science® Times Cited:75
Deposited By:CRC-Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems
Deposited On:2014-03-11
Last Modified:2017-10-31

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