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Beneficial impacts of climate change on pastoral and broadacre agriculture in cool-temperature Tasmania


Phelan, DC and Parsons, D and Lisson, SN and Holz, GK and MacLeod, ND, Beneficial impacts of climate change on pastoral and broadacre agriculture in cool-temperature Tasmania, Crop and Pasture Science, 65, (2) pp. 194-205. ISSN 1836-0947 (2014) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2014 CSIRO

DOI: doi:10.1071/CP12425


Although geographically small, Tasmania has a diverse range of regional climates that are affected by different synoptic influences. Consequently, changes in climate variables and climate-change impacts will likely vary in different regions of the state. This study aims to quantify the regional effects of projected climate change on the productivity of rainfed pastoral and wheat crop systems at five sites across Tasmania. Projected climate data for each site were obtained from the Climate Futures for Tasmania project (CFT). Six General Circulation Models were dynamically downscaled to ~10-km grid cells using the CSIRO Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model under the A2 emissions scenario for the period 19612100. Mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures at each site are projected to increase from a baseline period (19812010) to 2085 (20712100) by 2.32.7C. Mean annual rainfall is projected to increase slightly at all sites. Impacts on pasture and wheat production were simulated for each site using the projected CFT climate data. Mean annual pasture yields are projected to increase from the baseline to 2085 largely due to an increase in spring pasture growth. However, summer growth of temperate pasture species may become limited by 2085 due to greater soil moisture deficits. Wheat yields are also projected to increase, particularly at sites presently temperature-limited. This study suggests that increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations are likely to increase regional rainfed pasture and wheat production in the absence of any significant changes in rainfall patterns.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:biophysical modelling, climate models, dynamical downscaling, GCM, pasture, wheat
Research Division:Agricultural, Veterinary and Food Sciences
Research Group:Agriculture, land and farm management
Research Field:Agricultural systems analysis and modelling
Objective Division:Animal Production and Animal Primary Products
Objective Group:Pasture, browse and fodder crops
Objective Field:Sown pastures (excl. lucerne)
UTAS Author:Phelan, DC (Mr David Phelan)
UTAS Author:Parsons, D (Dr David Parsons)
ID Code:88842
Year Published:2014
Web of Science® Times Cited:5
Deposited By:Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture
Deposited On:2014-02-18
Last Modified:2017-11-02

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