Analyzing risks posed by climate change on ports: a fuzzy approach

Ports are affected by climate change with broad implications for the development prospects of the global economy with substantial economic costs. Hence, it is necessary to ensure that maritime stakeholders understand the challenges posed by climate change on ports, and work together to develop appropriate adaptation measures for addressing this important issue. However, there are many uncertainties, given that the inter-dynamics between climate change and ports can significantly diversify in different geographical regions. Moreover, while the impact posed by climate change on ports is, undeniably, a type of risk, what exactly it is remains unclear and subject to diversified interpretations from different stakeholders. Understanding such, by using a fuzzy approach, this paper undertakes a quantitative analysis on the perception of different maritime stakeholders on the risks posed by climate change on ports. A risk analytical model is developed which simulates stakeholders’ perception on the risks posed by climate change. The model is based on three attributes related to the potential threats posed by climate change on ports, namely timeframe, likelihood and severity of consequence. Its applicability is demonstrated using the data collected from a port in North America. By doing so, this paper greatly helps port planners and policymakers to develop effective adaptation strategies to climate change on ports. Meanwhile, the model can be used to prioritize critical impacts and evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation measures in terms of risk reduction.