File(s) under permanent embargo
Ocean salinities reveal strong global water cycle intensification during 1950 to 2000
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-17, 16:49 authored by Durack, PJ, Wijffels, SE, Matear, RJFundamental thermodynamics and climate models suggest that dry regions will become drier and wet regions will become wetter in response to warming. Efforts to detect this long-term response in sparse surface observations of rainfall and evaporation remain ambiguous. We show that ocean salinity patterns express an identifiable fingerprint of an intensifying water cycle. Our 50-year observed global surface salinity changes, combined with changes from global climate models, present robust evidence of an intensified global water cycle at a rate of 8 ± 5% per degree of surface warming. This rate is double the response projected by current-generation climate models and suggests that a substantial (16 to 24%) intensification of the global water cycle will occur in a future 2° to 3° warmer world.
History
Publication title
ScienceVolume
336Issue
6080Pagination
455-458ISSN
0036-8075Department/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesPublisher
Amer Assoc Advancement SciencePlace of publication
1200 New York Ave, Nw, Washington, USA, Dc, 20005Rights statement
Copyright 2012 The American Association for the Advancement of ScienceRepository Status
- Restricted