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Improved regional climate modelling through dynamical downscaling

conference contribution
posted on 2023-05-23, 05:27 authored by Stuart CorneyStuart Corney, Katzfey, J, McGregor, J, Grose, MR, Holz, GK, Christopher White, Bennett, James, Gaynor, SM, Nathaniel BindoffNathaniel Bindoff
Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide the best estimates for assessing potential changes to our climate on a global scale out to the end of this century. Because coupled GCMs have a fairly coarse resolution they do not provide a detailed picture of climate (and climate change) at the local scale. Tasmania, due to its diverse geography and range of climate over a small area is a particularly difficult region for drawing conclusions regarding climate change when relying solely on GCMs. The foundation of the Climate Futures for Tasmania project is to take the output produced by multiple GCMs, using multiple climate change scenarios, and use this output as input into the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) to downscale the GCM output. CCAM is a full atmospheric global general circulation model, formulated using a conformal-cubic grid that covers the globe but can be stretched to provide higher resolution in the area of interest (Tasmania). By modelling the atmosphere at a much finer scale than is possible using a coupled GCM we can more accurately capture the processes that drive Tasmania's weather/climate, and thus can more clearly answer the question of how Tasmania's climate will change in the future. We present results that show the improvements in capturing the local-scale climate and climate drivers that can be achieved through downscaling, when compared to a gridded observational data set. The underlying assumption of this work is that a better simulated current climatology will also produce a more credible climate change signal.

History

Publication title

IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 11: 17th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society

Volume

11

Editors

Barbara A Burns, Clem Davis, Andrew E Kiss and John R Taylor

Pagination

EJ

Department/School

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies

Publisher

Institute of Physics Publishing Ltd.

Place of publication

UK

Event title

National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society

Event Venue

Canberra

Date of Event (Start Date)

2010-01-27

Date of Event (End Date)

2010-01-29

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Climate change models

Usage metrics

    University Of Tasmania

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