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A multivariate regression model predicted falls in residents living in intermediate hostel care


Chen, JS and March, L and Schwartz, J and Zochling, JM and Makaroff, J and Sitoh, YY and Lau, TC and Lord, SR and Cameron, ID and Cumming, RJ and Sambrook, P, A multivariate regression model predicted falls in residents living in intermediate hostel care, The Journal of Clinical Epidemiology: Including Pharmacoepidemiology Reports; Devoted to The Problems and Management of Chronic Illness in All Age Groups, 58, (5) pp. 503-508. ISSN 0895-4356 (2005) [Refereed Article]

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2004.08.018


Background and Objective: To evaluate whether individual falls risk could be predicted in a frail elderly population. Study Design and Setting: We developed and tested an assessment tool and falls risk score for predicting falls based on a multivariate regression model in a prospective cohort study of intermediate care residents. Results: During the follow-up period, 1,736 falls by 1,107 subjects were recorded with an average of 170 falls per 100 person-years. Fifty percent of the study population had at least one fall within a year. Significant independent risk factors were poor balance, cognitive impairment, incontinence, higher illness severity rating, and older age. Twenty-two percent of participants with a falls risk score 7 accounted for 42% of the total falls, with a falls rate of 317 per 100 person-years. This rate was a sixfold increase from the falls rate of 52 per 100 person-years observed in participants with a score < 3. A high score (7) indicated almost a 2 in 3 chance of falling, while a low score (<3) indicated approximately a 1 in 7 chance of falling within 6 months. Conclusion: The assessment tool and falls risk score could identify individuals in this frail elderly population at high risk of falls.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Research Division:Biomedical and Clinical Sciences
Research Group:Clinical sciences
Research Field:Rheumatology and arthritis
Objective Division:Health
Objective Group:Clinical health
Objective Field:Clinical health not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Zochling, JM (Dr Jane Zochling)
ID Code:62654
Year Published:2005
Web of Science® Times Cited:22
Deposited By:Menzies Institute for Medical Research
Deposited On:2010-03-15
Last Modified:2011-07-13

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