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A multivariate regression model predicted falls in residents living in intermediate hostel care
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-17, 02:11 authored by Chen, JS, March, L, Schwartz, J, Zochling, JM, Makaroff, J, Sitoh, YY, Lau, TC, Lord, SR, Cameron, ID, Cumming, RJ, Sambrook, PBackground and Objective: To evaluate whether individual falls risk could be predicted in a frail elderly population. Study Design and Setting: We developed and tested an assessment tool and falls risk score for predicting falls based on a multivariate regression model in a prospective cohort study of intermediate care residents. Results: During the follow-up period, 1,736 falls by 1,107 subjects were recorded with an average of 170 falls per 100 person-years. Fifty percent of the study population had at least one fall within a year. Significant independent risk factors were poor balance, cognitive impairment, incontinence, higher illness severity rating, and older age. Twenty-two percent of participants with a falls risk score ¡Ý7 accounted for 42% of the total falls, with a falls rate of 317 per 100 person-years. This rate was a sixfold increase from the falls rate of 52 per 100 person-years observed in participants with a score < 3. A high score (¡Ý7) indicated almost a 2 in 3 chance of falling, while a low score (<3) indicated approximately a 1 in 7 chance of falling within 6 months. Conclusion: The assessment tool and falls risk score could identify individuals in this frail elderly population at high risk of falls.
History
Publication title
The Journal of Clinical Epidemiology: Including Pharmacoepidemiology Reports; Devoted to The Problems and Management of Chronic Illness in All Age GroupsVolume
58Issue
5Pagination
503-508ISSN
0895-4356Department/School
Menzies Institute for Medical ResearchPublisher
Pergamon-Elsevier Science LtdPlace of publication
The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford, England, Ox5 1GbRepository Status
- Restricted