University of Tasmania
Browse

File(s) under permanent embargo

The term spread and GDP growth in Australia

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-16, 23:43 authored by Poke, J, Graeme WellsGraeme Wells
This article analyses the significance of the spread between short- and long-term interest rates for predicting GDP growth in Australia, and whether the predictive relation deteriorates, as theory suggests, with the adoption of a credible inflation-targeting regime. We test whether the significance of the term spread is sensitive to the inclusion of other conditioning variables which may be useful in forecasting GDP growth, and whether forecasting significance is due primarily to the expected change in short-term interest rates, the term premium, or a combination of the two. There is some support for the proposition that the rationally-expected term spread has become less significant with the adoption of inflation targeting.

History

Publication title

Economic Record

Volume

85

Issue

269

Pagination

121-131

ISSN

0013-0249

Department/School

TSBE

Publisher

Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia

Place of publication

Australia

Rights statement

The definitive published version is available online at: http://www.interscience.wiley.com

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Economic growth

Usage metrics

    University Of Tasmania

    Exports

    RefWorks
    BibTeX
    Ref. manager
    Endnote
    DataCite
    NLM
    DC