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Breakup and conditions for stability of the northern Larsen Ice Shelf, Antarctica
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-16, 11:26 authored by Doake, CSM, Corr, HFJ, Rott, H, Skvarca, P, Neal YoungNeal YoungThe breakup of ice shelves has been widely regarded as an indicator of climate change, with observations around the Ant-arctic Peninsula having shown a pattern of gradual retreat, associated with regional atmospheric warming and increased summer melt and fracturing processes. The rapid collapse of the northernmost section of the Larsen Ice Shelf (Larsen A), over a few days in January 1995, indicated that, after retreat beyond a critical limit, ice shelves may disintegrate rapidly. Here we use a finite-element numerical model that treats ice as a continuum without fracture to examine the breakup history between 1986 and 1997 of the two northern sections of Larsen Ice Shelf (Larsen A and Larsen B), from which we establish stability criteria for ice shelves. Analysis of various ice-shelf configurations reveals characteristic patterns in the strain rates near the ice front which we use to describe the stability of the ice shelf. On Larsen A, only the initial and final ice-front configurations show a stable pattern. Larsen B at present exhibits a stable pattern, but if the ice front were to retreat by a further few kilometres, it too is likely to enter an irreversible retreat phase.
History
Publication title
NatureVolume
391Issue
6669Pagination
778-780ISSN
0028-0836Department/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesPublisher
Macmillan Magazines LtdPlace of publication
UKRepository Status
- Restricted