144013 - Early warning signals of recovery in complex systems.pdf (1.01 MB)
Early warning signals of recovery in complex systems
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-20, 22:54 authored by Clements, CF, McCarthy, MA, Julia BlanchardJulia BlanchardEarly warning signals (EWSs) offer the hope that patterns observed in data can predict the future states of ecological systems. While a large body of research identifies such signals prior to the collapse of populations, the prediction that such signals should also be present before a system’s recovery has thus far been overlooked. We assess whether EWSs are present prior to the recovery of overexploited marine systems using a trait-based ecological model and analysis of real-world fisheries data. We show that both abundance and trait-based signals are independently detectable prior to the recovery of stocks, but that combining these two signals provides the best predictions of recovery. This work suggests that the efficacy of conservation interventions aimed at restoring systems which have collapsed may be predicted prior to the recovery of the system, with direct relevance for conservation planning and policy.
Funding
Australian Research Council
History
Publication title
Nature CommunicationsVolume
10Article number
1681Number
1681Pagination
1-9ISSN
2041-1723Department/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesPublisher
Nature Publishing GroupPlace of publication
United KingdomRights statement
Copyright 2019 the authors. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Repository Status
- Open