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Time varying macroeconomic effects of energy price shocks: A new measure for China

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-20, 18:24 authored by Cross, J, Bao NguyenBao Nguyen
In this paper, we examine the effects of world energy price shocks on China's macroeconomy over the past two decades. We begin by showing that the use of oil prices as a proxy for more general energy price dynamics is not appropriate for the case of China. Having established this fact, we propose a new energy price index which accurately reflects the structure of China's energy expenditure shares, and intertemporal fluctuations in international energy prices. We then employ a sufficiently rich set of time varying VARs, identified through a new set of agnostic sign restrictions, to estimate the effects of energy price shocks on China's macroeconomy. Our main result is that positive energy price shocks generate statistically significant reductions in real GDP growth and increases in inflation. Interestingly, both the sets of responses have consistently declined over the sample period. Next, the interest rate responses are found to be consistently positive over the sample period. Given the aforementioned stagflation result, this suggests that the PBOC is more focused on inflation stabilization as compared to facilitating output growth. All presented results are shown to be robust under both official national data and those developed by Chang et al. (2015), thus strengthening our conclusion that energy price shocks have significant time varying effects on China's macroeconomy.

History

Publication title

Energy Economics

Volume

73

Pagination

146-160

ISSN

0140-9883

Department/School

TSBE

Publisher

Elsevier Science Bv

Place of publication

Po Box 211, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 1000 Ae

Rights statement

Copyright 2018 Elsevier B.V.

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Economic growth; Macroeconomics not elsewhere classified

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