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World steel production: A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-20, 16:30 authored by Ravazzolo, F, Joaquin VespignaniJoaquin VespignaniThis paper proposes world steel production as an indicator of global real economic activity. World steel production data is published with only a one-month delay, thereby providing timely information for world real GDP forecasters. We find that world steel production and Lutz Kilian's (2009) index of global real economic activity generate large gains in forecasting world real GDP, relative to an autoregressive benchmark. A forecast combination of world steel production, Kilian's (2009) index of global real economic activity and an index of the industrial production of OECD countries plus six non-OECD emerging economies produces significant gains in forecasting world real GDP, relative to an autoregressive benchmark.
History
Publication title
Canadian Journal of EconomicsVolume
53Pagination
743-766ISSN
0008-4085Department/School
TSBEPublisher
Univ Toronto Press IncPlace of publication
Journals Division, 5201 Dufferin St, Downsview, Toronto, Canada, On, M3H 5T8Rights statement
© Canadian Economics AssociationRepository Status
- Restricted