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World steel production: A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-20, 16:30 authored by Ravazzolo, F, Joaquin VespignaniJoaquin Vespignani
This paper proposes world steel production as an indicator of global real economic activity. World steel production data is published with only a one-month delay, thereby providing timely information for world real GDP forecasters. We find that world steel production and Lutz Kilian's (2009) index of global real economic activity generate large gains in forecasting world real GDP, relative to an autoregressive benchmark. A forecast combination of world steel production, Kilian's (2009) index of global real economic activity and an index of the industrial production of OECD countries plus six non-OECD emerging economies produces significant gains in forecasting world real GDP, relative to an autoregressive benchmark.

History

Publication title

Canadian Journal of Economics

Volume

53

Pagination

743-766

ISSN

0008-4085

Department/School

TSBE

Publisher

Univ Toronto Press Inc

Place of publication

Journals Division, 5201 Dufferin St, Downsview, Toronto, Canada, On, M3H 5T8

Rights statement

© Canadian Economics Association

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Macroeconomics not elsewhere classified

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