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139701 - Aurora Basin, the weak underbelly of East Antarctica.pdf (2.89 MB)

Aurora Basin, the weak underbelly of East Antarctica

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journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-20, 15:39 authored by Pelle, T, Morlighem, M, Felicity McCormack
The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) has the potential to raise global sea levels by ∼52 m. Here, we model the evolution of select EAIS catchments to 2100 using three basal melt rate parameterizations and force our model with surface mass balance and ocean thermal anomalies from 10 global climate models. While the domain loses mass under low‐emission scenarios, it gains ∼10‐mm sea‐level rise equivalent ice volume (SLRe) under high‐emission scenarios. The primary region of thinning is within 50 km upstream of Totten Glacier's grounding line. Totten's glacial discharge is modulated by the migration of its grounding line, which is sensitive to brief intrusions of ocean water at temperatures higher than present. Once the grounding line is dislodged, Totten's ice velocity increases by up to 70% of present‐day values, resulting in ∼6‐mm SLRe loss from this sector.

History

Publication title

Geophysical Research Letters

Volume

47

Issue

9

Article number

e2019GL086821

Number

e2019GL086821

Pagination

1-10

ISSN

0094-8276

Department/School

School of Geography, Planning and Spatial Sciences

Publisher

Amer Geophysical Union

Place of publication

2000 Florida Ave Nw, Washington, USA, Dc, 20009

Rights statement

Copyright 2020 American Geophysical Union

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Effects of climate change on Antarctic and sub-Antarctic environments (excl. social impacts)

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