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130741 - Holocene El Nino-Southern Oscillation variability reflected in subtropical Australian precipitation.pdf (2.23 MB)

Holocene El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability reflected in subtropical Australian precipitation

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posted on 2023-05-20, 00:43 authored by Barr, C, Tibby, J, Leng, MJ, Tyler, JJ, Henderson, ACG, Overpeck, JT, Simpson, GL, Cole, JE, Phipps, SJ, Marshall, JC, McGregor, GB, Hua, Q, McRobie, FH
The La Niña and El Niño phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have major impacts on regional rainfall patterns around the globe, with substantial environmental, societal and economic implications. Long-term perspectives on ENSO behaviour, under changing background conditions, are essential to anticipating how ENSO phases may respond under future climate scenarios. Here, we derive a 7700-year, quantitative precipitation record using carbon isotope ratios from a single species of leaf preserved in lake sediments from subtropical eastern Australia. We find a generally wet (more La Niña-like) mid-Holocene that shifted towards drier and more variable climates after 3200 cal. yr BP, primarily driven by increasing frequency and strength of the El Niño phase. Climate model simulations implicate a progressive orbitally-driven weakening of the Pacific Walker Circulation as contributing to this change. At centennial scales, high rainfall characterised the Little Ice Age (~1450–1850 CE) in subtropical eastern Australia, contrasting with oceanic proxies that suggest El Niño-like conditions prevail during this period. Our data provide a new western Pacific perspective on Holocene ENSO variability and highlight the need to address ENSO reconstruction with a geographically diverse network of sites to characterise how both ENSO, and its impacts, vary in a changing climate.

History

Publication title

Scientific Reports

Volume

9

Article number

1627

Number

1627

Pagination

1-9

ISSN

2045-2322

Department/School

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies

Publisher

Nature Publishing Group

Place of publication

United Kingdom

Rights statement

Copyright 2019 The Authors. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Repository Status

  • Open

Socio-economic Objectives

Climate variability (excl. social impacts)

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