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Body size shifts and early warning signals precede the historic collapse of whale stocks

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-19, 09:48 authored by Clements, CF, Julia BlanchardJulia Blanchard, Kirsty NashKirsty Nash, Mark HindellMark Hindell, Ozgul, A
Predicting population declines is a key challenge in the face of global environmental change. Abundance-based early warning signals have been shown to precede population collapses; however, such signals are sensitive to the low reliability of abundance estimates. Here, using historical data on whales harvested during the 20th century, we demonstrate that early warning signals can be present not only in the abundance data, but also in the more reliable body size data of wild populations. We show that during the period of commercial whaling, the mean body size of caught whales declined dramatically (by up to 4 m over a 70-year period), leading to early warning signals being detectable up to 40 years before the global collapse of whale stocks. Combining abundance and body size data can reduce the length of the time series required to predict collapse, and decrease the chances of false positive early warning signals.

History

Publication title

Nature Ecology and Evolution

Article number

0188

Number

0188

Pagination

1-6

ISSN

2397-334X

Department/School

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies

Publisher

Nature Publishing Group

Place of publication

United Kingdom

Rights statement

© 2017 Macmillan Publishers

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Assessment and management of terrestrial ecosystems

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