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Dynamic risk analysis of offloading process in floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) platform using Bayesian Network


Yeo, C and Bhandari, J and Abbassi, R and Garaniya, V and Chai, S and Shomali, B, Dynamic risk analysis of offloading process in floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) platform using Bayesian Network, Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries, 41 pp. 259-269. ISSN 0950-4230 (2016) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2016 Elsevier Ltd.

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2016.04.002


The growing demand for natural gas has pushed oil and gas exploration to more isolated and previously untapped regions around the world where construction of LNG processing plants is not always a viable option. The development of FLNG will allow floating plants to be positioned in remote offshore areas and subsequently produce, liquefy, store and offload LNG in the one position. The offloading process from an FLNG platform to a gas tanker can be a high risk operation. It consists of LNG being transferred, in hostile environments, through loading arms or flexible cryogenic hoses into a carrier which then transports the LNG to onshore facilities. During the carrier's offloading process at onshore terminals, it again involves risk that may result in an accident such as collision, leakage and/or grounding. It is therefore critical to assess and monitor all risks associated with the offloading operation. This study is aimed at developing a novel methodology using Bayesian Network (BN) to conduct the dynamic safety analysis for the offloading process of an LNG carrier. It investigates different risk factors associated with LNG offloading procedures in order to predict the probability of undesirable accidents. Dynamic failure assessment using Bayesian theory can estimate the likelihood of the occurrence of an event. It can also estimate the failure probability of the safety system and thereby develop a dynamic failure assessment tool for the offloading process at a particular FLNG plant. The main objectives of this paper are: to understand the LNG offloading process, to identify hazardous events during offloading operation, and to perform failure analysis (modelling) of critical accidents and/or events. Most importantly, it is to evaluate and compare risks. A sensitivity analysis has been performed to validate the risk models and to study the behaviour of the most influential factors. The results have indicated that collision is the most probable accident to occur during the offloading process of an LNG carrier at berth, which may have catastrophic consequences.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:FLNG, accident, dynamic risk analysis, Bayesian network, safety barriers
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Maritime engineering
Research Field:Ocean engineering
Objective Division:Expanding Knowledge
Objective Group:Expanding knowledge
Objective Field:Expanding knowledge in engineering
UTAS Author:Yeo, C (Ms Chui Yeo)
UTAS Author:Bhandari, J (Mr Jyoti Bhandari)
UTAS Author:Abbassi, R (Dr Rouzbeh Abbassi)
UTAS Author:Garaniya, V (Dr Vikram Garaniya)
UTAS Author:Chai, S (Professor Shuhong Chai)
ID Code:108604
Year Published:2016
Web of Science® Times Cited:49
Deposited By:NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics
Deposited On:2016-04-26
Last Modified:2017-11-03

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