File(s) under permanent embargo
Qualitative modelling towards ecosystem-based management of climate-driven species redistribution
conference contribution
posted on 2023-05-24, 14:48 authored by Marzloff, MP, Jessica Melbourne-ThomasJessica Melbourne-Thomas, Hamon, KG, Eriko Hoshino, Sarah JenningsSarah Jennings, Elizabeth Van PuttenElizabeth Van Putten, Gretta PeclGretta PeclAs marine ecosystems face global climate-driven ocean changes, polewards re-distributions of species - or range shifts – occur across taxa and latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in southeastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species, or ‘range-shifters’, that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results show that, (i) multiple simultaneous range shifts amplify each other’s negative ecological impacts and (ii) implementing a whole-of-ecosystem management strategy and combining a suite of management interventions, is necessary to effectively prevent undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-‐occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change, and help prioritise future research and monitoring.
History
Publication title
Species on the Move Conference ProgramDepartment/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesEvent title
Species on the MoveEvent Venue
Hobart, TasmaniaDate of Event (Start Date)
2016-02-09Date of Event (End Date)
2016-02-12Repository Status
- Restricted