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Network based approach for predictive accident modelling


Baksh, A-A and Khan, F and Gadag, V and Ferdous, R, Network based approach for predictive accident modelling, Safety Science, 80 pp. 274-287. ISSN 0925-7535 (2015) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2015 Elsevier Ltd.

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2015.08.003


Accident modeling methodologies in literature such as the System Hazard Identification, Prediction and Prevention (SHIPP) consider accident precursors and the associated five engineering safety barriers to assess the likelihood of accident occurrence with the help of fault and event trees to model the cause-consequence relationship between the failure of safety barriers and potential adverse events and design preventive, controlling and mitigating measures for improving the industrial process safety. In the SHIPP method, a restrictive assumption is used that the severity of the adverse events progresses only through sequential failures of the five safety barriers considered.

In the proposed methodology, shortcomings of the existing accident model are improved in the following ways. Firstly, the above mentioned restrictive sequential progression assumption is mitigated in the SHIPP methodology by allowing non-sequential failure of safety barriers to cause adverse events in any order. Secondly, in the prediction of posterior probabilities of adverse events for real time industrial data, an important mechanical safety barrier ‘Damage Control Emergency Management Barrier’ has been included. Further, posterior probabilities of the occurrence of the adverse events are calculated using a Bayesian network (BN) approach. The utility of this approach is tested and demonstrated with the data from a liquefied natural gas (LNG) process facility. The method allows for continual updating of occurrence probabilities for adverse events and failure probabilities of safety barriers for successive real time data from industry.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:accident precursors, process accident model, predictive model, Bayesian updating mechanism
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Maritime engineering
Research Field:Ocean engineering
Objective Division:Mineral Resources (Excl. Energy Resources)
Objective Group:Environmentally sustainable mineral resource activities
Objective Field:Environmentally sustainable mineral resource activities not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Baksh, A-A (Dr Md. Al-Amin Baksh)
UTAS Author:Khan, F (Professor Faisal Khan)
ID Code:107169
Year Published:2015
Web of Science® Times Cited:26
Deposited By:NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics
Deposited On:2016-03-07
Last Modified:2017-11-03

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