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Trending topics rank prediction

conference contribution
posted on 2023-05-23, 10:53 authored by Han, SC, Hyunsuk Chung, Byeong KangByeong Kang
Many web services, such as Twitter and Google, provide a list of their most popular terms, called a trending topics list, in descending order of popularity ranking. The changes in people’s interest in a specific trending topic are reflected in the changes of its popularity rank (up, down, and unchanged). This paper analyses the nature of trending topics and proposes a temporal modelling framework for predicting rank change of trending topics using historical rank data. Historical rank data show that almost 70 % of trending topics tend to disappear and reappear later. Therefore it is important to reflect this phenomenon in the prediction model, which is related to handling missing value and window size. Missing value handling approach was selected by using expectation maximization. An optimal window size is selected based on the minimum length of topic disappearance in the same topic but with a different context. We examined our approach with four machine-learning techniques using the U.S. twitter trending topics collected from 30th June 2012 to 30th June 2014. Our model achieved the highest prediction accuracy (94.01 %) with C4.5 decision tree algorithm.

History

Publication title

Web Information Systems Engineering (WISE 2015) Part II

Volume

LNCS 9419

Editors

J Wang, W Cellary, D Wang, H Wang, S-C Chen, T Li, Y Zhang

Pagination

316-323

ISBN

9783319261867

Department/School

School of Information and Communication Technology

Publisher

Springer International Publishing

Place of publication

Switzerland

Event title

16th International Conference of Web Information Systems Engineering (WISE 2015)

Event Venue

Miami, FL

Date of Event (Start Date)

2015-11-01

Date of Event (End Date)

2015-11-03

Rights statement

Copyright 2015 Springer International Publishing

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Information systems, technologies and services not elsewhere classified

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    University Of Tasmania

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