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Projection of osteoporosis-related fractures and costs in China: 2010-2050

Citation

Si, L and Winzenberg, TM and Jiang, Q and Chen, M and Palmer, AJ, Projection of osteoporosis-related fractures and costs in China: 2010-2050, Osteoporosis International, 26, (7) pp. 1929-1937. ISSN 0937-941X (2015) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2015 International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation

DOI: doi:10.1007/s00198-015-3093-2

Abstract

Summary: A state-transition microsimulation model was used to project the substantial economic burden to the Chinese healthcare system of osteoporosis-related fractures. Annual number and costs of osteoporosis-related fractures were estimated to double by 2035 and will increase to 5.99 (95 % CI 5.44, 6.55) million fractures costing $25.43 (95 % CI 23.92, 26.95) billion by 2050. Consequently, cost-effective intervention policies must urgently be identified in an attempt to minimize the impact of fractures.

Introduction: The aim of the study was to project the osteoporosis-related fractures and costs for the Chinese population aged ≥50 years from 2010 to 2050.

Methods: A state-transition microsimulation model was used to simulate the annual incident fractures and costs. The simulation was performed with a 1-year cycle length and from the Chinese healthcare system perspective. Incident fractures and annual costs were estimated from 100 unique patient populations for year 2010, by multiplying the age- and sex-specific annual fracture risks and costs of fracture by the corresponding population totals in each of the 100 categories. Projections for 2011-2050 were performed by multiplying the 2010 risks and costs of fracture by the respective annual population estimates. Costs were presented in 2013 US dollars.

Results: Approximately 2.33 (95 % CI 2.08, 2.58) million osteoporotic fractures were estimated to occur in 2010, costing $9.45 (95 % CI 8.78, 10.11) billion. Females sustained approximately three times more fractures than males, accounting for 76 % of the total costs from 1.85 (95 % CI 1.68, 2.01) million fractures. The annual number and costs of osteoporosis-related fractures were estimated to double by 2035 and will increase to 5.99 (95 % CI 5.44, 6.55) million fractures costing $25.43 (95 % CI 23.92, 26.95) billion by 2050.

Conclusions: Our study demonstrated that osteoporosis-related fractures cause a substantial economic burden which will markedly increase over the coming decades. Consequently, healthcare resource planning must consider these increasing costs, and cost-effective screening and intervention policies must urgently be identified in an attempt to minimize the impact of fractures on the health of the burgeoning population as well as the healthcare budget.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:costs, economic burden, osteoporosis, osteoporotic fracture
Research Division:Economics
Research Group:Applied Economics
Research Field:Health Economics
Objective Division:Health
Objective Group:Health and Support Services
Objective Field:Evaluation of Health Outcomes
Author:Si, L (Mr Lei Si)
Author:Winzenberg, TM (Professor Tania Winzenberg)
Author:Palmer, AJ (Professor Andrew Palmer)
ID Code:99640
Year Published:2015
Web of Science® Times Cited:12
Deposited By:Menzies Institute for Medical Research
Deposited On:2015-03-31
Last Modified:2016-10-03
Downloads:0

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