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Modeling probability knowledge and choice in decisions from experience

conference contribution
posted on 2023-05-23, 10:00 authored by Hawkins, GE, Camilleri, AR, Heathcote, A, Newell, BR, Brown, SD
In most everyday decisions we learn about the outcomes of alternative courses of action through experience: a sampling process. Current models of these decisions from experience do not explain how the sample outcomes are used to form a representation of the distribution of outcomes. We overcome this limitation by developing a new and simple model, the Exemplar Confusion (ExCon) model. In a novel experiment, the model predicted participants’ choices and their knowledge of outcome probabilities, when choosing among multiple-outcome gambles in sampling and feedback versions of the task. The model also performed at least as well as other leading choice models when evaluated against benchmark data from the Technion Prediction Tournament. Our approach advances current understanding by proposing a psychological mechanism for how probability estimates arise rather than using estimates solely as inputs to choice models.

History

Publication title

Proceedings of the 36th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society

Editors

P Bello, M Guairin, M McShane & B Scassellati

Pagination

1-6

ISSN

1069-7977

Department/School

Tasmanian School of Medicine

Publisher

Cognitive Science Society

Place of publication

United States

Event title

36th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society

Event Venue

Quebec City, Canada

Date of Event (Start Date)

2014-07-23

Date of Event (End Date)

2014-07-26

Rights statement

Copyright unknown

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Expanding knowledge in psychology

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    University Of Tasmania

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