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OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global economy
Citation
Ratti, RAJ and Vespignani, J, OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global economy, Energy Economics, 50 pp. 364-378. ISSN 0140-9883 (2015) [Refereed Article]
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Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
DOI: doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2014.12.001
Abstract
Hamilton identifies 1973 to 1996 as "the age of OPEC" and 1997 to the present as "a new industrial age." During
1974–1996 growth in non-OPEC oil production Granger causes growth in OPEC oil production. OPEC oil production
decreases significantlywith positive shocks to non-OPEC oil production in the earlier period, but does not do
so in the "newindustrial age". Inthe "newindustrial age" OPEC oil production rises significantlywith an increase
in oil prices, unlike during "the age of OPEC" period. OPEC oil production responds significantly to positive innovations
in global GDP throughout. Over 1997:Q1–2012:Q4 the negative effect on real oil price of positive shocks
to non-OPEC oil production is larger in absolute value than that of positive shocks to OPEC oil production. The
cumulative effects of structural shocks to non-OPEC oil production and to real oil price on OPEC oil production
are large. The cumulative effects of structural shocks to OPEC production and real oil price on non-OPEC production
are small. Results are robust to changes in model specification. An econometric technique to predict growth
inOPEC oil production provides support for the results fromthe SVAR analysis. Results are consistentwith important
changes in the global oil market.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
---|---|
Research Division: | Economics |
Research Group: | Applied economics |
Research Field: | Financial economics |
Objective Division: | Expanding Knowledge |
Objective Group: | Expanding knowledge |
Objective Field: | Expanding knowledge in economics |
UTAS Author: | Vespignani, J (Associate Professor Joaquin Vespignani) |
ID Code: | 99261 |
Year Published: | 2015 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 29 |
Deposited By: | TSBE |
Deposited On: | 2015-03-18 |
Last Modified: | 2017-12-06 |
Downloads: | 356 View Download Statistics |
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