The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has been demonstrated to play a role in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the globe in a number of recent studies. While the impact of the MJO on TCs in the Atlantic basin since the mid-1970s has been well documented, a newly developed 107-yr-long index for the MJO allows for additional analysis of the impacts of the MJO on Atlantic TC activity. TC activity in the Atlantic increases when MJO-related convection is enhanced over Africa and the Indian Ocean, while TC activity in the Atlantic is suppressed when the MJO enhances convection over the western Pacific. This long-term record of the MJO also allows for the analysis of how the MJO’s impacts may be modulated by other climate modes, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over interannual time scales and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) over multidecadal time scales. When climatologically unfavorable conditions such as an El Niño event or a negative AMO phase are present, even TC-favorable MJO conditions are not enough to generate statistically significant increases in TC activity from the long-term average across the Atlantic basin. However, climatologically favorable conditions during a La Niña event or a warm AMO phase act to enhance the modulation of TC activity over the Atlantic basin by the MJO.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Keywords:	Madden-Julian oscillation, tropical cyclones
Research Division:	Earth Sciences
Research Group:	Climate change science
Research Field:	Climatology
Objective Division:	Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:	Understanding climate change
Objective Field:	Climate variability (excl. social impacts)
UTAS Author:	Oliver, ECJ (Dr Eric Oliver)
ID Code:	98128
Year Published:	2015
Web of Science® Times Cited:	46
Deposited By:	IMAS Research and Education Centre
Deposited On:	2015-02-02
Last Modified:	2017-10-30
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