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Application of evidence theory to construction projects
Citation
Adair, D and Jaeger, M, Application of evidence theory to construction projects, The International Journal of the Constructed Environment, 4, (4) pp. 25-34. ISSN 2154-8587 (2014) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
Copyright 2014 Common Ground, Desmond Adair, Martin Jaeger
Official URL: http://ijv.cgpublisher.com/product/pub.201/prod.19...
Abstract
Crucial decisions are necessary throughout the life-cycle of large-scale construction projects. Such decisions
are critical in that they have a direct impact upon the outcomes and success of a given project. To improve the decision
process, an evidential reasoning framework based on the Dezert-Smarandache theory of plausible and paradoxical
reasoning, where heterogeneous evidence sources are fused together, is described and used here. Though they usually
contain various levels of uncertainty, imprecision, and conflicts, the sources provide beliefs for decision making; usually
the combination of these sources of evidence, with different reliabilities, is done by the classical Shafer’s discounting
approach. This means that when considering unequal importance of sources, if any, a similar reliability discounting
process is generally used, making no difference between the notion of importance and reliability. In multicriteria decision
making, however, these notions should be clearly distinguished. This paper is to analyse the impact of source reliability
and importance (priority) upon the decision making process. A reliability discounting technique and an importance
discounting technique are applied.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | evidential reasoning, Dezert-Smarandache Theory, Dempster-Shafer Theory, discounting techniques, risk |
Research Division: | Engineering |
Research Group: | Civil engineering |
Research Field: | Civil engineering not elsewhere classified |
Objective Division: | Construction |
Objective Group: | Construction processes |
Objective Field: | Construction processes not elsewhere classified |
UTAS Author: | Adair, D (Dr Desmond Adair) |
UTAS Author: | Jaeger, M (Dr Martin Jaeger) |
ID Code: | 98044 |
Year Published: | 2014 |
Deposited By: | Engineering |
Deposited On: | 2015-01-29 |
Last Modified: | 2017-11-06 |
Downloads: | 1 View Download Statistics |
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