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2013 Churchill Fellowship

Citation

White, CJ, 2013 Churchill Fellowship, Improving long-range forecasting of extreme weather events in Australia and the communication of the associated risk to decision makers, The Winston Churchill Memorial Trust of Australia, Hobart, TAS (2014) [Award]


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Abstract

Natural disasters caused by extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods and severe storms, are becoming more frequent and have impacted more people than ever before. The devastating impact of these events has led meteorological and climate research organisations worldwide to look into ways in which they can be forecasted further ahead in time to aid preparedness and disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is looking at ways to improve its capacity to be able to produce skilful and reliable forecasts of extreme weather events on the medium- to long-range timescale – e.g. sub-seasonal (typically 2 to 4 weeks ahead) and seasonal (up to a few months ahead). However, making improvements to the longer-range forecast models, assessing the skill and associated uncertainty of these forecasts, and exploring how to communicate, use and apply them effectively for a wide range of decision-makers and end-users across Australia is a significant challenge.

This 2013 Churchill Fellowship provided an opportunity to learn first hand the progress leading meteorological institutions in the United Kingdom, USA and Sweden are making in the development of medium- to long-range forecasts of extreme events. By meeting with some of the world’s most experienced and respected scientists, practitioners and researchers, it explored potential uses and applications of these forecasts for a range of decision-makers across the human health, international development, DRR, and emergency management and response sectors, and learnt about new methods for the effective communication of extreme event weather forecasts from leading research groups.

Item Details

Item Type:Award
Keywords:forecasting, climate, weather, seasonal prediction, extreme events, disaster risk reduction
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Environmental Engineering
Research Field:Environmental Engineering Modelling
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Climate and Climate Change
Objective Field:Climate Change Adaptation Measures
Author:White, CJ (Dr Chris White)
ID Code:97982
Year Published:2014
Deposited By:Engineering
Deposited On:2015-01-23
Last Modified:2015-01-23
Downloads:0

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