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Evaluating options for the future energy mix of Japan after the Fukushima nuclear crisis


Hong, S and Bradshaw, CJA and Brook, BW, Evaluating options for the future energy mix of Japan after the Fukushima nuclear crisis, Energy Policy, 56 pp. 418-424. ISSN 0301-4215 (2013) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2013 Elsevier

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.01.002


The Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011 has increased social and political reluctance to embrace nuclear power in Japan (and elsewhere). The Japanese government has thus been considering four possible future energy mixes, including a nuclear-free pathway, and three others with 10%35% nuclear supply coupled with a larger proportion of renewable energy and fossil fuels to replace nuclear. Here we use multi-criteria decision-making analysis (MCDMA) to assess the potential negative economic (levelised cost of electricity, and energy security), environmental (greenhouse-gas emissions, land transformation, water consumption, heated water discharge, air pollution, radioactive waste, and solid waste) and social (safety issues) impacts of the four proposed pathways to determine which scenario most holistically minimises adverse future outcomes. The nuclear-free pathway has the highest overall potential for adverse outcomes (score=2.49 out of 3), and the 35% nuclear power supply option yielding the lowest negative impact score (0.74) without weightings. Despite some sensitivity to the choice of criterion weights, our analyses demonstrate clearly that from an empirical perspective, a nuclear-free pathway for Japan is the worst option to pursue. We recommend that MCDMA methodology we used for Japan can be applied to other countries to evaluate future electricity generation scenarios.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:energy plan, decarbonisation, sustainability criteria
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Electrical engineering
Research Field:Electrical energy generation (incl. renewables, excl. photovoltaics)
Objective Division:Energy
Objective Group:Energy storage, distribution and supply
Objective Field:Energy systems and analysis
UTAS Author:Hong, S (Dr Sanghyun Hong)
UTAS Author:Brook, BW (Professor Barry Brook)
ID Code:97951
Year Published:2013
Web of Science® Times Cited:60
Deposited By:Biological Sciences
Deposited On:2015-01-22
Last Modified:2017-11-06

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