eCite Digital Repository

Forecasting emergency department presentations


Champion, R and Kinsman, LD and Lee, GA and Masman, KA and May, EA and Mills, TM and Taylor, MD and Thomas, PR and Williams, RJ, Forecasting emergency department presentations, Australian Health Review, 31, (1) pp. 83-90. ISSN 0156-5788 (2007) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2007 AHHA

DOI: doi:10.1071/AH070083


Objective: To forecast the number of patients who will present each month at the emergency department of a hospital in regional Victoria.

Methods: The data on which the forecasts are based are the number of presentations in the emergency department for each month from 2000 to 2005. The statistical forecasting methods used are exponential smoothing and Box–Jenkins methods as implemented in the software package SPSS version 14.0 (SPSS Inc, Chicago, Ill, USA).

Results: For the particular time series, of the available models, a simple seasonal exponential smoothing model provides optimal forecasting performance. Forecasts for the first five months in 2006 compare well with the observed attendance data.

Conclusions: Time series analysis is shown to provide a useful, readily available tool for predicting emergency department demand. The approach and lessons from this experience may assist other hospitals and emergency departments to conduct Aust Health Rev 2007: 31(1): 83–90 their own analysis to aid planning.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:emergency department, forecasting,
Research Division:Health Sciences
Research Group:Health services and systems
Research Field:Health services and systems not elsewhere classified
Objective Division:Health
Objective Group:Evaluation of health and support services
Objective Field:Evaluation of health and support services not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Kinsman, LD (Professor Leigh Kinsman)
ID Code:97762
Year Published:2007
Web of Science® Times Cited:65
Deposited By:Health Sciences B
Deposited On:2015-01-13
Last Modified:2015-04-13

Repository Staff Only: item control page