Champion, R and Kinsman, LD and Lee, GA and Masman, KA and May, EA and Mills, TM and Taylor, MD and Thomas, PR and Williams, RJ, Forecasting emergency department presentations, Australian Health Review, 31, (1) pp. 83-90. ISSN 0156-5788 (2007) [Refereed Article]
Copyright 2007 AHHA
Objective: To forecast the number of patients who will present each month at the emergency department of a hospital in regional Victoria.
Methods: The data on which the forecasts are based are the number of presentations in the emergency department for each month from 2000 to 2005. The statistical forecasting methods used are exponential smoothing and Box–Jenkins methods as implemented in the software package SPSS version 14.0 (SPSS Inc, Chicago, Ill, USA).
Results: For the particular time series, of the available models, a simple seasonal exponential smoothing model provides optimal forecasting performance. Forecasts for the first five months in 2006 compare well with the observed attendance data.
Conclusions: Time series analysis is shown to provide a useful, readily available tool for predicting emergency department demand. The approach and lessons from this experience may assist other hospitals and emergency departments to conduct Aust Health Rev 2007: 31(1): 83–90 their own analysis to aid planning.
|Item Type:||Refereed Article|
|Keywords:||emergency department, forecasting,|
|Research Division:||Medical and Health Sciences|
|Research Group:||Public Health and Health Services|
|Research Field:||Public Health and Health Services not elsewhere classified|
|Objective Group:||Health and Support Services|
|Objective Field:||Health and Support Services not elsewhere classified|
|UTAS Author:||Kinsman, LD (Professor Leigh Kinsman)|
|Web of Science® Times Cited:||42|
|Deposited By:||Health Sciences B|
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