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© 2014 Porfirio et al. Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly), and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine). We show the range in projected distributions that result from different variable selection, climate models and emissions scenarios. The extent to which results are affected by these choices depends on the characteristics of the species modelled, but they all have the potential to substantially alter conclusions about the impacts of climate change. We discuss implications for conservation planning and management, and provide recommendations to conservation practitioners on variable selection and accommodating uncertainty when using future climate projections in species distribution models.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Keywords:	Species Distribution Models, Conservation Planning, Climate Change
Research Division:	Earth Sciences
Research Group:	Atmospheric Sciences
Research Field:	Climate Change Processes
Objective Division:	Environment
Objective Group:	Climate and Climate Change
Objective Field:	Climate Change Adaptation Measures
UTAS Author:	Harris, RM (Dr Rebecca Harris)
UTAS Author:	Lefroy, EC (Professor Ted Lefroy)
UTAS Author:	Lee, G (Dr Greg Lee)
UTAS Author:	Bindoff, NL (Professor Nathan Bindoff)
ID Code:	97457
Year Published:	2014
Web of Science® Times Cited:	99
Deposited By:	CRC-Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems
Deposited On:	2014-12-17
Last Modified:	2017-11-01
Downloads:	289 View Download Statistics