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The impact of climate change on the water resources of the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia
Citation
White, CJ and Tanton, TW and Rycroft, DW, The impact of climate change on the water resources of the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia, Water Resources Management, 28, (15) pp. 5267-5281. ISSN 0920-4741 (2014) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
Copyright 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
DOI: doi:10.1007/s11269-014-0716-x
Abstract
Central Asia is facing an unprecedented juxtaposition of regional climate- and
water-related issues, emphasised by a changing climate. We investigate the potential impact
of long-term climate change on the availability of water resources in the Amu Darya River, one
of the two major rivers that feed the Aral Sea, and its effect on irrigation in the region. Using a
water balance accounting model developed for the Amu Darya basin, we find that projected
increases in summer temperatures of up to 5 °C by 2070–2099 under a high-emission scenario,
combined with likely shifts in the seasonality of precipitation, would lead to an increase in crop
water consumptive demand of between 10.6 and 16 % (or between 3.7 and 5.5 km3 y−1)
relative to 1961–1990. By the end of the century, 34 to 49 % of the basin’s existing 3.4 million
ha of irrigated land would go unirrigated in a 1:20 year drought. Runoff is also expected to
decline by between 10 and 20 % on current levels, however contributions to river flows from
unsustainable glacial retreat and snow-melt are likely to remain small. While the uncertainty
surrounding the precipitation projections is high, the effect of increased temperatures on
irrigation practices in the basin is more robust in the long-term.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | Amu Darya, Central Asia, climate change, water resources, irrigation |
Research Division: | Earth Sciences |
Research Group: | Physical geography and environmental geoscience |
Research Field: | Geomorphology and earth surface processes |
Objective Division: | Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards |
Objective Group: | Understanding climate change |
Objective Field: | Global effects of climate change (excl. Australia, New Zealand, Antarctica and the South Pacific) (excl. social impacts) |
UTAS Author: | White, CJ (Dr Chris White) |
ID Code: | 97380 |
Year Published: | 2014 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 52 |
Deposited By: | Engineering |
Deposited On: | 2014-12-15 |
Last Modified: | 2017-10-30 |
Downloads: | 1 View Download Statistics |
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