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Reforming the dark art of GST forecasting
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-18, 05:46 authored by Richard EcclestonRichard Eccleston, Timothy WoolleyA decade after its introduction the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and its role in funding the States and Territories in the Australian federation is once again on centre stage of the national political debate. As a precursor to the forthcoming review of the Australian federation, this paper focuses on a technical yet significant aspect of intergovernmental financial reform, namely enhancing the transparency and accuracy of the methods State Governments use to forecast GST revenues. Without a consistent and credible national framework for forecasting GST revenues, State forecasts will continue to deviate significantly from projections published by the Commonwealth. We argue that while the States are justified in abandoning Commonwealth projections, the GST Distribution Review’s recommendations to address the problem do not go far enough. There is need to develop a transparent national approach to forecasting GST distributions administered by the Commonwealth Grants Commission as part of the broader debate about reforming the governance of the Australian Federation. Such an approach would yield credible forecasts and is less dependent on State cooperation and information sharing than the model recommended by the GST Distribution Review.
History
Publication title
eJournal of Tax ResearchVolume
12Pagination
319-334ISSN
1448-2398Department/School
School of Social SciencesPublisher
University of New South Wales * School of Taxation & Business Law (Atax)Place of publication
AustraliaRights statement
Copyright 2014 Copyright 2014 School of Taxation and Business Law (Atax), UNSW Business SchoolRepository Status
- Restricted