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Reforming the dark art of GST forecasting


Eccleston, R and Woolley, T, Reforming the dark art of GST forecasting, eJournal of Tax Research, 12, (2) pp. 319-334. ISSN 1448-2398 (2014) [Refereed Article]

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A decade after its introduction the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and its role in funding the States and Territories in the Australian federation is once again on centre stage of the national political debate. As a precursor to the forthcoming review of the Australian federation, this paper focuses on a technical yet significant aspect of intergovernmental financial reform, namely enhancing the transparency and accuracy of the methods State Governments use to forecast GST revenues. Without a consistent and credible national framework for forecasting GST revenues, State forecasts will continue to deviate significantly from projections published by the Commonwealth. We argue that while the States are justified in abandoning Commonwealth projections, the GST Distribution Review’s recommendations to address the problem do not go far enough. There is need to develop a transparent national approach to forecasting GST distributions administered by the Commonwealth Grants Commission as part of the broader debate about reforming the governance of the Australian Federation. Such an approach would yield credible forecasts and is less dependent on State cooperation and information sharing than the model recommended by the GST Distribution Review.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Research Division:Human Society
Research Group:Policy and administration
Research Field:Policy and administration not elsewhere classified
Objective Division:Law, Politics and Community Services
Objective Group:Government and politics
Objective Field:Government and politics not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Eccleston, R (Professor Richard Eccleston)
UTAS Author:Woolley, T (Mr Timothy Woolley)
ID Code:97282
Year Published:2014
Deposited By:School of Social Sciences
Deposited On:2014-12-10
Last Modified:2017-11-27

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