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The application of the virtual ecologist approach to evaluating the effects of uncertainty in plot based monitoring schemes due to landscape spatial and temporal heterogeneity

conference contribution
posted on 2023-05-23, 09:26 authored by Lechner, A, Clarke, D, Weatherly, D, Fletcher, A, Erskine, P, Comber, A
Monitoring programs that can detect changes in ecosystem condition are critical to assessing the success of rehabilitation and detecting negative anthropogenic impacts from activities such as mining. However, vegetation communities vary considerably and may exhibit short-term condition changes that mask long-term trends. This paper describes the development of a virtual ecologist (VE) landscape and observation simulation model for time-series data (VELOS_t). VELOS_t can be used to quantify the relationship between vegetation temporal and spatial variability, measurement uncertainty and sampling design to evaluate the robustness of a particular monitoring strategy. The model has four components: i) a landscape model that uses synthetic data to describe vegetation condition; ii) a natural variation model; iii) an environmental impact model and iv) a sampling model to describe plot-based monitoring schemes. The VE model allows users to estimate the expected performance of a range of sampling designs a priori and thus estimate detection sensitivity. Using simulated vegetation data, the model assesses whether statistical analyses can distinguish patterns of vegetation abundance from the effects of the observation of these patterns. Furthermore, the VE approach is a useful in testing the uncertainty sources such as imprecise measurement of vegetation cover are easily modelled using the VE approach in comparison to analytical approaches. This paper introduces the virtual ecologist model and provides a simple example of its use to assess the robustness of monitoring scheme design for long-term trend analysis.

History

Publication title

Proceedings of the sixth biannial meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society

Editors

R Seppelt, AA Voinov, S Lange, D Bankamp

Pagination

942-949

ISBN

9788890357428

Department/School

Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture (TIA)

Publisher

International Environmental Modelling and Software Society

Place of publication

Leipzig, Germany

Event title

6th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software (iEMSs 2012)

Event Venue

Leipzig, Germany

Date of Event (Start Date)

2012-07-01

Date of Event (End Date)

2012-07-05

Rights statement

Copyright 2012 the Authors

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Assessment and management of Antarctic and Southern Ocean ecosystems

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