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Identification of the cause of variability of probability of failure for burst models recommended by codes/standards

Citation

Hasan, M and Khan, F and Kenny, S, Identification of the cause of variability of probability of failure for burst models recommended by codes/standards, Journal of Pressure Vessel Technology, Transactions of the ASME, 133, (4) pp. 1-9. ISSN 0094-9930 (2011) [Refereed Article]

DOI: doi:10.1115/1.4002862

Abstract

Failure probability of oil and gas pipelines due to external corrosion defects can be estimated using corrosion growth model and the evaluation of remaining strength. Codes/standards have been developed for the assessment of the remaining strength of corroded pipeline. The remaining strength and the operating pressure were considered to develop the limit state equation and consequently the failure probability of the burst models recommended by codes/standards. In the present paper, comparative analyses of the failure probability estimated by the codes/standards were conducted, using Monte Carlo simulation and first order second moment methods. The analysis revealed that the failure probability of the burst models recommended by codes/standards varies significantly for the same defects size. The study further explored the cause of variability in failure probabilities. The study observed that different defect shape specifications (rectangular, parabolic, etc.) and different stress concentration factor derivations (different contributions of l) for burst pressure estimation are responsible for high variability in the probability of failure. It is important to reduce variability to ensure unified risk-based design approach considering any codes/standards. © 2011 American Society of Mechanical Engineers.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:external corrosion; first order second moment; limit state function; Monte Carlo; probability of failure; External corrosion; First order second moment; limit state function; Monte Carlo; probability of failure; Computer simulation; Corrosion
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Maritime Engineering
Research Field:Ocean Engineering
Objective Division:Mineral Resources (excl. Energy Resources)
Objective Group:Environmentally Sustainable Mineral Resource Activities
Objective Field:Environmentally Sustainable Mineral Resource Activities not elsewhere classified
Author:Khan, F (Professor Faisal Khan)
ID Code:94563
Year Published:2011
Web of Science® Times Cited:2
Deposited By:NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics
Deposited On:2014-09-11
Last Modified:2014-09-11
Downloads:0

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