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Accident modeling and risk assessment framework for safety critical decision-making: Application to deepwater drilling operation


Rathnayaka, S and Khan, F and Amayotte, P, Accident modeling and risk assessment framework for safety critical decision-making: Application to deepwater drilling operation, Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 227, (1) pp. 86-105. ISSN 1748-006X (2013) [Refereed Article]

DOI: doi:10.1177/1748006X12472158


Rising global energy demand is encouraging oil companies to invest in deepwater drilling. However, there are numerous engineering and safety challenges involved in this activity. The BP Deepwater Horizon accident (Macondo well blowout) has raised serious concerns about the safety of deepwater drilling. The major reasons for such a catastrophic blowout event are the lack of continuous assessment of risk and the lack of risk-based decision making to take timely and adequate preventive actions. The present work proposes an accident modeling and risk assessment framework based on accident precursors (early warnings). This framework uses the system hazard identification, prediction and prevention methodology to model the unwanted situation. The proposed risk assessment framework generates results that can be used to: (1) analyze the dynamic performance of safety barriers, (2) analyze the probability of occurrence of different severity levels, (3) analyze the dynamic risk profile of different severity levels and the aggregated risk profile, and (4) help to make safety-critical decisions based on aggregated risk profile. The present work provides an assessment of offshore deepwater drilling risk assessment and a basis to make timely and precise safety critical decisions. The risk assessment methodology is demonstrated on the Macondo well blowout accident. This case study highlighted the applicability and advantages of using the proposed method in drilling operations. © 2013 IMechE.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:aggregated risk profile; Deepwater drilling; Macondo well blowout; prediction and prevention accident model; safety barriers; system hazard identification
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Maritime engineering
Research Field:Ocean engineering
Objective Division:Mineral Resources (Excl. Energy Resources)
Objective Group:Environmentally sustainable mineral resource activities
Objective Field:Environmentally sustainable mineral resource activities not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Khan, F (Professor Faisal Khan)
ID Code:94546
Year Published:2013
Web of Science® Times Cited:44
Deposited By:NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics
Deposited On:2014-09-11
Last Modified:2017-11-03

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