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Risk-based design of process systems using discrete-time Bayesian networks


Khakzad, N and Khan, F and Amyotte, P, Risk-based design of process systems using discrete-time Bayesian networks, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 109 pp. 5-17. ISSN 0951-8320 (2013) [Refereed Article]

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.ress.2012.07.009


Temporal Bayesian networks have gained popularity as a robust technique to model dynamic systems in which the components' sequential dependency, as well as their functional dependency, cannot be ignored. In this regard, discrete-time Bayesian networks have been proposed as a viable alternative to solve dynamic fault trees without resort to Markov chains. This approach overcomes the drawbacks of Markov chains such as the state-space explosion and the error-prone conversion procedure from dynamic fault tree. It also benefits from the inherent advantages of Bayesian networks such as probability updating. However, effective mapping of the dynamic gates of dynamic fault trees into Bayesian networks while avoiding the consequent huge multi-dimensional probability tables has always been a matter of concern. In this paper, a new general formalism has been developed to model two important elements of dynamic fault tree, i.e., cold spare gate and sequential enforcing gate, with any arbitrary probability distribution functions. Also, an innovative Neutral Dependency algorithm has been introduced to model dynamic gates such as priority-AND gate, thus reducing the dimension of conditional probability tables by an order of magnitude. The second part of the paper is devoted to the application of discrete-time Bayesian networks in the risk assessment and safety analysis of complex process systems. It has been shown how dynamic techniques can effectively be applied for optimal allocation of safety systems to obtain maximum risk reduction. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:Discrete-time Bayesian network; Dynamic fault tree; Markov chain; Neutral dependency; Probabilistic risk assessment; Safety analysis; Discrete-time Bayesian networks; Dynamic fault trees; Neutral dependency; Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Maritime engineering
Research Field:Ocean engineering
Objective Division:Mineral Resources (Excl. Energy Resources)
Objective Group:Environmentally sustainable mineral resource activities
Objective Field:Environmentally sustainable mineral resource activities not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Khan, F (Professor Faisal Khan)
ID Code:94452
Year Published:2013
Web of Science® Times Cited:93
Deposited By:NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics
Deposited On:2014-09-09
Last Modified:2015-01-27

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