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Fault and Event Tree Analyses for Process Systems Risk Analysis: Uncertainty Handling Formulations


Ferdous, R and Khan, F and Sadiq, R and Amyotte, P and Veitch, B, Fault and Event Tree Analyses for Process Systems Risk Analysis: Uncertainty Handling Formulations, Risk Analysis, 31, (1) pp. 86-107. ISSN 0272-4332 (2011) [Refereed Article]

DOI: doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01475.x


Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is a systematic approach for evaluating likelihood, consequences, and risk of adverse events. QRA based on event (ETA) and fault tree analyses (FTA) employs two basic assumptions. The first assumption is related to likelihood values of input events, and the second assumption is regarding interdependence among the events (for ETA) or basic events (for FTA). Traditionally, FTA and ETA both use crisp probabilities; however, to deal with uncertainties, the probability distributions of input event likelihoods are assumed. These probability distributions are often hard to come by and even if available, they are subject to incompleteness (partial ignorance) and imprecision. Furthermore, both FTA and ETA assume that events (or basic events) are independent. In practice, these two assumptions are often unrealistic. This article focuses on handling uncertainty in a QRA framework of a process system. Fuzzy set theory and evidence theory are used to describe the uncertainties in the input event likelihoods. A method based on a dependency coefficient is used to express interdependencies of events (or basic events) in ETA and FTA. To demonstrate the approach, two case studies are discussed. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:Event tree analysis (ETA); Fault tree analysis (FTA); Interdependence; likelihoods; Quantitative risk analysis (QRA); Uncertainty; Event tree analysis; Fault-trees; Interdependence; likelihoods; Quantitative risk analysis; Uncertainty; Fuzzy logic
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Maritime engineering
Research Field:Ocean engineering
Objective Division:Mineral Resources (Excl. Energy Resources)
Objective Group:Environmentally sustainable mineral resource activities
Objective Field:Environmentally sustainable mineral resource activities not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Khan, F (Professor Faisal Khan)
ID Code:94430
Year Published:2011
Web of Science® Times Cited:159
Deposited By:NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics
Deposited On:2014-09-09
Last Modified:2015-01-27

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