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Dynamic safety analysis of process systems by mapping bow-tie into Bayesian network


Khakzad, N and Khan, F and Amyotte, P, Dynamic safety analysis of process systems by mapping bow-tie into Bayesian network, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 91, (1-2) pp. 46-53. ISSN 0957-5820 (2013) [Refereed Article]

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.psep.2012.01.005


Among the various techniques used for safety analysis of process systems, bow-tie (BT) analysis is becoming a popular technique as it represents an accident scenario from causes to effects. However, the BT application in the dynamic safety analysis is limited due to the static nature of its components, i.e. fault tree and event tree. It is therefore difficult in BT to take accident precursors into account to update the probability of events and the consequent risk. Also, BT is unable to represent conditional dependency. Event dependency is common among primary events and safety barriers. The current paper illustrates how Bayesian network (BN) helps to overcome these limitations. It has also been shown that BN can be used in dynamic safety analysis of a wide range of accident scenarios due to its flexible structure. This paper also introduces the application of probability adapting in dynamic safety analysis rather than probability updating. A case study from the U.S. Chemical Safety Board has been used to illustrate the application of both BT and BN techniques, with a comparison of the results from each technique. © 2012 The Institution of Chemical Engineers.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:Bayesian network; Bow-tie approach; Dynamic safety analysis; Probability adapting; Accident precursors; Accident scenarios; Bow tie; Chemical safety boards; Event trees; Fault-trees; Process system; Safety analysis; Safety barriers; Techniques used
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Maritime engineering
Research Field:Ocean engineering
Objective Division:Mineral Resources (Excl. Energy Resources)
Objective Group:Environmentally sustainable mineral resource activities
Objective Field:Environmentally sustainable mineral resource activities not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Khan, F (Professor Faisal Khan)
ID Code:94429
Year Published:2013
Web of Science® Times Cited:348
Deposited By:NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics
Deposited On:2014-09-09
Last Modified:2017-10-27

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