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Dynamic safety analysis of process systems by mapping bow-tie into Bayesian network
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-18, 03:09 authored by Khakzad, N, Faisal KhanFaisal Khan, Amyotte, PAmong the various techniques used for safety analysis of process systems, bow-tie (BT) analysis is becoming a popular technique as it represents an accident scenario from causes to effects. However, the BT application in the dynamic safety analysis is limited due to the static nature of its components, i.e. fault tree and event tree. It is therefore difficult in BT to take accident precursors into account to update the probability of events and the consequent risk. Also, BT is unable to represent conditional dependency. Event dependency is common among primary events and safety barriers. The current paper illustrates how Bayesian network (BN) helps to overcome these limitations. It has also been shown that BN can be used in dynamic safety analysis of a wide range of accident scenarios due to its flexible structure. This paper also introduces the application of probability adapting in dynamic safety analysis rather than probability updating. A case study from the U.S. Chemical Safety Board has been used to illustrate the application of both BT and BN techniques, with a comparison of the results from each technique. © 2012 The Institution of Chemical Engineers.
History
Publication title
Process Safety and Environmental ProtectionVolume
91Issue
1-2Pagination
46-53ISSN
0957-5820Department/School
Australian Maritime CollegePublisher
Inst Chemical EngineersPlace of publication
165-189 Railway Terrace, Davis Bldg, Rugby, England, Cv21 3BrRepository Status
- Restricted