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Whole range and regional-based ecological niche models predict differing exposure to 21st century climate change in the key cool temperate rainforest tree southern beech (Nothofagus cunninghamii)
Citation
Worth, JRP and Harrison, PA and Williamson, GJ and Jordan, GJ, Whole range and regional-based ecological niche models predict differing exposure to 21st century climate change in the key cool temperate rainforest tree southern beech (Nothofagus cunninghamii), Austral Ecology, 40, (2) pp. 126-138. ISSN 1442-9985 (2015) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
Copyright 2014 The Authors
Abstract
The warmer and drier climates projected for the mid- to late-21st century may have particularly adverse
impacts on the cool temperate rainforests of southeastern Australia. Southern beech (Nothofagus cunninghamii;
Nothofagaceae), a dominant tree species in these forests, may be vulnerable to minor changes in its climate
envelope, especially at the edge of the species range, with Holocene fossil evidence showing local extinction of
populations in response to small climate changes.We modelled the stability of this species climate envelope using
the maximum entropy algorithm implemented in Maxent and two thresholds of presence/absence by projecting the
modern climate envelope onto four Global Circulation Models forecasted for two time periods (2050s and 2070s).
The climate envelope, as estimated from the species present climatic range, is predicted to shrink by up to 49% by
the 2050s and up to 64% by the 2070s. The greatest predicted reduction is in Victoria with 91–100% of its current
range being climatically unsuitable by the 2070s. Climatically similar areas to the species present range are
predicted to remain in mountainous areas of western Tasmania, the Northeast Highlands of Tasmania, and the Baw
Baw Plateau in the Central Highlands of Victoria. However, region-specific modelling approaches made very
different predictions from the whole-range based models, especially in the severity of the predicted decline for
Victorian populations of N. cunninghamii which occur in much warmer climates than the rest of the species
geographical range. This shows that, for widespread species that span a range of climate zones, the exposure of
current populations to climate change may be better modelled using a regional based approach. How the species
responds to climate change will depend on the species ability to respond to drier and warmer climates and the
concomitant increase in fire intensity.
Item Details
| Item Type: | Refereed Article |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | climate shift, exposure, ecological niche modelling, Maxent, Nothofagus cunninghamii, regional modelling, southeastern Australia |
| Research Division: | Environmental Sciences |
| Research Group: | Climate change impacts and adaptation |
| Research Field: | Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation |
| Objective Division: | Environmental Management |
| Objective Group: | Terrestrial systems and management |
| Objective Field: | Terrestrial biodiversity |
| UTAS Author: | Worth, JRP (Dr James Worth) |
| UTAS Author: | Harrison, PA (Dr Peter Harrison) |
| UTAS Author: | Williamson, GJ (Dr Grant Williamson) |
| UTAS Author: | Jordan, GJ (Professor Greg Jordan) |
| ID Code: | 94283 |
| Year Published: | 2015 (online first 2014) |
| Web of Science® Times Cited: | 10 |
| Deposited By: | Plant Science |
| Deposited On: | 2014-09-05 |
| Last Modified: | 2017-10-31 |
| Downloads: | 0 |
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