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Multi-decadal variability of forest fire risk - eastern Australia
Citation
Verdon, DC and Kiem, AS and Franks, SW, Multi-decadal variability of forest fire risk - eastern Australia, International Journal of Wildland Fire, 13, (2) pp. 165-171. ISSN 1049-8001 (2004) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
Copyright 2004 IAWF
DOI: doi:10.1071/WF03034
Abstract
This study investigates the influence that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) have on long term daily weather conditions pertinent to high forest fire danger in New South Wales, Australia. Using historical meteorological data for 22 weather stations to compute the daily value of McArthur’s Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), it is shown that a strong relationship exists between climate variability, on a range of time scales, and forest fire risk. An investigation into the influence of ENSO on fire risk demonstrates that the proportion of days with a high, or greater than high, fire danger rating is markedly increased during El Niño episodes. More importantly, this study also shows that the already significantly enhanced fire danger associated with El Niño events was even further increased during El Niño events that occurred when the IPO was negative. The potential to use simple indices of climate variability to predict forest fire risk is therefore demonstrated to be significant.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | ENSO, IPO, PDO, fire, bushfire, rainfall, climate variability, climate change |
Research Division: | Engineering |
Research Group: | Environmental engineering |
Research Field: | Environmentally sustainable engineering |
Objective Division: | Environmental Management |
Objective Group: | Other environmental management |
Objective Field: | Other environmental management not elsewhere classified |
UTAS Author: | Franks, SW (Professor Stewart Franks) |
ID Code: | 93394 |
Year Published: | 2004 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 59 |
Deposited By: | Office of the School of Engineering |
Deposited On: | 2014-07-31 |
Last Modified: | 2014-08-05 |
Downloads: | 0 |
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