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Multi-decadal climate variability, New South Wales, Australia
Citation
Franks, SW, Multi-decadal climate variability, New South Wales, Australia, Water Science and Technology, 49, (7) pp. 133-140. ISSN 0273-1223 (2004) [Refereed Article]
DOI: doi:10.2166/wst.2004.0437
Abstract
Traditional hydrological risk estimation has treated the observations of hydro-climatological extremes as being independent and identically distributed, implying a static climate risk. However, recent research has highlighted the persistence of multi-decadal epochs of distinct climate states across New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Climatological studies have also revealed multi-decadal variability in the magnitude and frequency of El Niņo/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts. In this paper, examples of multi-decadal variability are presented with regard to flood and drought risk. The causal mechanisms for the observed variability are then explored. Finally, it is argued that the insights into climate variability provide (a) useful lead time for forecasting seasonal hydrological risk, (b) a strong rationale for a new framework for hydrological design and (c) a strong example of natural climate variability for use in the testing of General Circulation Models of climate change.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | flood, drought, ENSO, rainfall, hydrology, IPO, PDO |
Research Division: | Engineering |
Research Group: | Environmental engineering |
Research Field: | Environmentally sustainable engineering |
Objective Division: | Environmental Management |
Objective Group: | Other environmental management |
Objective Field: | Other environmental management not elsewhere classified |
UTAS Author: | Franks, SW (Professor Stewart Franks) |
ID Code: | 93392 |
Year Published: | 2004 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 20 |
Deposited By: | Office of the School of Engineering |
Deposited On: | 2014-07-31 |
Last Modified: | 2014-07-31 |
Downloads: | 0 |
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