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An ecological regime shift resulting from disrupted predator-prey interactions in Holocene Australia
Citation
Prowse, TAA and Johnson, CN and Bradshaw, CJA and Brook, BW, An ecological regime shift resulting from disrupted predator-prey interactions in Holocene Australia, Ecology, 95, (3) pp. 693-702. ISSN 0012-9658 (2014) [Refereed Article]
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Copyright Statement
Copyright 2014 by the Ecological Society of America
Abstract
The mass extinction events during human prehistory are striking examples of
ecological regime shifts, the causes of which are still hotly debated. In Australia, human arrival
approximately 50 thousand years ago was associated with the continental-scale extinction of
numerous marsupial megafauna species and a permanent change in vegetation structure. An
alternative stable state persisted until a second regime shift occurred during the late Holocene,
when the largest two remaining marsupial carnivores, the thylacine and devil, disappeared
from mainland Australia. These extinctions have been widely attributed to the human-assisted
invasion of a competing predator, the dingo. In this unusual case, the simultaneous effects of
human ‘‘intensification’’ (population growth and technological advances) and climate change
(particularly increased ENSO variability) have been largely overlooked. We developed a
dynamic model system capable of simulating the complex interactions between the main
predators (humans, thylacines, devils, dingoes) and their marsupial prey (macropods), which
we coupled with reconstructions of human population growth and climate change for late-
Holocene Australia. Because the strength of important interspecific interactions cannot be
estimated directly, we used detailed scenario testing and sensitivity analysis to identify robust
model outcomes and investigate competing explanations for the Holocene regime shift. This
approach identified human intensification as the most probable cause, while also
demonstrating the potential importance of synergies with the effects of climate change. Our
models indicate that the prehistoric impact of humans on Australian mammals was not limited
to the late Pleistocene (i.e., the megafaunal extinctions) but extended into the late Holocene.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | dingo, archeology, prehistory, thylacine, Tasmanian devil, extinction, Australia, climate change, human intensification, megafauna, paleoecology, regime shift, Holocene extinction, kangaroo, marsupial |
Research Division: | Biological Sciences |
Research Group: | Ecology |
Research Field: | Community ecology (excl. invasive species ecology) |
Objective Division: | Environmental Management |
Objective Group: | Terrestrial systems and management |
Objective Field: | Terrestrial biodiversity |
UTAS Author: | Johnson, CN (Professor Christopher Johnson) |
UTAS Author: | Brook, BW (Professor Barry Brook) |
ID Code: | 93214 |
Year Published: | 2014 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 40 |
Deposited By: | Zoology |
Deposited On: | 2014-07-17 |
Last Modified: | 2017-10-31 |
Downloads: | 444 View Download Statistics |
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