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Defining and observing stages of climate-mediated range shifts in marine systems
Citation
Bates, AE and Pecl, GT and Frusher, S and Hobday, AJ and Wernberg, T and Smale, DA and Sunday, JM and Hill, NA and Dulvy, NK and Colwell, RK and Holbrook, NJ and Fulton, EA and Slawinski, D and Feng, M and Edgar, GJ and Radford, BT and Thompson, PA and Watson, RA, Defining and observing stages of climate-mediated range shifts in marine systems, Global Environmental Change, 26, (1) pp. 27-38. ISSN 0959-3780 (2014) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
Copyright 2014 Elsevier
DOI: doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.03.009
Abstract
Climate change is transforming the structure of biological communities through the geographic extension
and contraction of species’ ranges. Range edges are naturally dynamic, and shifts in the location of range
edges occur at different rates and are driven by different mechanisms. This leads to challenges when
seeking to generalize responses among taxa and across systems. We focus on warming-related range shifts
in marine systems to describe extensions and contractions as stages. Range extensions occur as a sequence
of (1) arrival, (2) population increase, and (3) persistence. By contrast, range contractions occur
progressively as (1) performance decline, (2) population decrease and (3) local extinction. This stage-based
framework can be broadly applied to geographic shifts in any species, life-history stage, or population
subset. Ideally the probability of transitioning through progressive range shift stages could be estimated
from empirical understanding of the various factors influencing range shift rates. Nevertheless, abundance
and occupancy data at the spatial resolution required to quantify range shifts are often unavailable and we
suggest the pragmatic solution of considering observations of range shifts within a confidence framework
incorporating the type, amount and quality of data. We use case studies to illustrate how diverse evidence
sources can be used to stage range extensions and contractions and assign confidence that an observed
range shift stage has been reached. We then evaluate the utility of trait-based risk (invasion) and
vulnerability (extinction) frameworks for application in a range shift context and find inadequacies,
indicating an important area for development. We further consider factors that influence rates of extension
and contraction of range edges in marine habitats. Finally, we suggest approaches required to increase our
capacity to observe and predict geographic range shifts under climate change.
Item Details
| Item Type: | Refereed Article |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | species redistribution, attribution, prediction, biogeography, warming, abundance-occupancy relationship |
| Research Division: | Environmental Sciences |
| Research Group: | Climate change impacts and adaptation |
| Research Field: | Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation |
| Objective Division: | Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards |
| Objective Group: | Understanding climate change |
| Objective Field: | Global effects of climate change (excl. Australia, New Zealand, Antarctica and the South Pacific) (excl. social impacts) |
| UTAS Author: | Bates, AE (Dr Amanda Bates) |
| UTAS Author: | Pecl, GT (Professor Gretta Pecl) |
| UTAS Author: | Frusher, S (Professor Stewart Frusher) |
| UTAS Author: | Hill, NA (Dr Nicole Hill) |
| UTAS Author: | Holbrook, NJ (Professor Neil Holbrook) |
| UTAS Author: | Fulton, EA (Dr Elizabeth Fulton) |
| UTAS Author: | Edgar, GJ (Professor Graham Edgar) |
| UTAS Author: | Watson, RA (Professor Reginald Watson) |
| ID Code: | 91623 |
| Year Published: | 2014 |
| Web of Science® Times Cited: | 162 |
| Deposited By: | IMAS Research and Education Centre |
| Deposited On: | 2014-05-22 |
| Last Modified: | 2018-02-16 |
| Downloads: | 0 |
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