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Extending our understanding of South Pacific gyre ''spin-up'': modeling the East Australian Current in a future climate
Citation
Oliver, ECJ and Holbrook, NJ, Extending our understanding of South Pacific gyre ''spin-up'': modeling the East Australian Current in a future climate, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 119, (5) pp. 2788-2805. ISSN 2169-9275 (2014) [Refereed Article]
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Copyright Statement
Copyright 2014 American Geophysical Union
Abstract
The western Tasman Sea represents a global warming marine hot spot, where the waters are
warming at almost 4 times the global average rate, argued in the literature to be due to a spin-up of the
South Pacific subtropical gyre and extension of the East Australian Current (EAC). To further investigate and
test this paradigm, we analyze climate change simulations of Tasman Sea circulation and metrics on output
from the Ocean Forecasting Australia Model for the 20th and 21st centuries, forced by a global climate
model simulation under the A1B carbon emissions scenario. First, we show that the 1990s simulation estimates
of mean dynamic topography, present-day location of the EAC separation point, and volume transports
of the EAC, EAC extension, and flow along the Tasman Front, are consistent with recent observations.
We further demonstrate that between the 1990s and 2060s, the volume transport of the EAC extension is
projected to increase by 4.3 Sv at the expense of the flow along the Tasman Front (projected to decrease by
2.7 Sv). The transport of the EAC core flow (equatorward of the separation point) is projected to change
very little (increase of 0.2 Sv). The model projects a Tasman Sea-wide warming, with mean increases of up
to 3C. These results are interpreted using a simple linear, barotropic model which captures both the sign
and meridional distribution of the projected changes in mean transport, including negligible change in core
EAC transport but enhanced EAC extension. This meridional asymmetry in the transports is consistent with
the wind-forced ocean response to changes in the basin-wide wind stress curl.
Item Details
| Item Type: | Refereed Article |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | East Australian Current, climate change, Tasman Sea |
| Research Division: | Earth Sciences |
| Research Group: | Oceanography |
| Research Field: | Physical Oceanography |
| Objective Division: | Environment |
| Objective Group: | Climate and Climate Change |
| Objective Field: | Climate Variability (excl. Social Impacts) |
| UTAS Author: | Oliver, ECJ (Dr Eric Oliver) |
| UTAS Author: | Holbrook, NJ (Professor Neil Holbrook) |
| ID Code: | 91518 |
| Year Published: | 2014 |
| Web of Science® Times Cited: | 39 |
| Deposited By: | IMAS Research and Education Centre |
| Deposited On: | 2014-05-21 |
| Last Modified: | 2017-11-30 |
| Downloads: | 82 View Download Statistics |
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