Gada, H and Scuffham, PA and Griffin, B and Marwick, TH, Quality-of-life implications of immediate surgery and watchful waiting in asymptomatic aortic stenosis: a decision-analytic model, Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes, 4, (5) pp. 541-548. ISSN 1941-7705 (2011) [Refereed Article]
Copyright 2011 American Heart Association
Methods and Results—We defined health states as preoperative, postoperative, postcomplication, and death. We calculated the implications of watchful waiting, tissue and mechanical AVR-based on risks, transitions, utilities, and cost derived from literature review. Further analyses evaluated situations thought to favor immediate surgery and watchful waiting. Sensitivity analyses were based on the likelihood of preoperative death and HF in follow-up. In the reference case (age, 65 years; post-AVR utility, 0.9; annualized pre-AVR mortality, 1%; and post-AVR HF, 11.3%), the utility of watchful waiting was superior to that of immediate mechanical or tissue AVR (quality-adjusted life-years, 7.4 versus 5.3 versus 5.3, respectively), and the cost was less than immediate surgery. Sensitivity analyses showed immediate surgery was not likely to be more effective regardless of the yearly probability of post-AVR HF in the watchful waiting group (range, 0% to 80%). Immediate surgery was likely to be effective when pre-AVR annual mortality reached 13%.
Conclusions—Immediate surgery in asymptomatic severe AS does not improve outcomes unless risk of sudden death pre-AVR and HF after AVR are higher than currently reported.
|Item Type:||Refereed Article|
|Keywords:||aortic stenosis, aortic valve replacement, decision analysis, cost-effectiveness|
|Research Division:||Medical and Health Sciences|
|Research Group:||Cardiorespiratory Medicine and Haematology|
|Research Field:||Cardiology (incl. Cardiovascular Diseases)|
|Objective Group:||Clinical Health (Organs, Diseases and Abnormal Conditions)|
|Objective Field:||Cardiovascular System and Diseases|
|Author:||Marwick, TH (Professor Tom Marwick)|
|Web of Science® Times Cited:||8|
|Deposited By:||Menzies Institute for Medical Research|
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