eCite Digital Repository
Known unknowns in an imperfect world: incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi-event capture–recapture models
Citation
Desprez, M and McMahon, CR and Hindell, MA and Harcourt, R and Gimenez, O, Known unknowns in an imperfect world: incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi-event capture-recapture models, Ecology and Evolution, 3, (14) pp. 4658-4668. ISSN 2045-7758 (2013) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
Copyright 2013 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd
DOI: doi:10.1002/ece3.846
Abstract
Studying the demography of wild animals remains challenging as several of the
critical parts of their life history may be difficult to observe in the field. In particular,
determining with certainty when an individual breeds for the first time
is not always obvious. This can be problematic because uncertainty about the
transition from a prebreeder to a breeder state – recruitment – leads to uncertainty
in vital rate estimates and in turn in population projection models. To
avoid this issue, the common practice is to discard imperfect data from the
analyses. However, this practice can generate a bias in vital rate estimates if
uncertainty is related to a specific component of the population and reduces
the sample size of the dataset and consequently the statistical power to detect
effects of biological interest. Here, we compared the demographic parameters
assessed from a standard multistate capture–recapture approach to the estimates
obtained from the newly developed multi-event framework that specifically
accounts for uncertainty in state assessment. Using a comprehensive longitudinal
dataset on southern elephant seals, we demonstrated that the multi-event
model enabled us to use all the data collected (6639 capture–recapture histories
vs. 4179 with the multistate model) by accounting for uncertainty in breeding
states, thereby increasing the precision and accuracy of the demographic parameter
estimates. The multi-event model allowed us to incorporate imperfect data
into demographic analyses. The gain in precision obtained has important implications
in the conservation and management of species because limiting uncertainty
around vital rates will permit predicting population viability with greater
accuracy.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
---|---|
Keywords: | breeding state assignment, multi-state capture-recapture models, primiparity, southern elephant seals, vital rates |
Research Division: | Biological Sciences |
Research Group: | Ecology |
Research Field: | Marine and estuarine ecology (incl. marine ichthyology) |
Objective Division: | Environmental Management |
Objective Group: | Coastal and estuarine systems and management |
Objective Field: | Assessment and management of coastal and estuarine ecosystems |
UTAS Author: | McMahon, CR (Dr Clive McMahon) |
UTAS Author: | Hindell, MA (Professor Mark Hindell) |
ID Code: | 89025 |
Year Published: | 2013 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 17 |
Deposited By: | IMAS Research and Education Centre |
Deposited On: | 2014-02-24 |
Last Modified: | 2017-10-31 |
Downloads: | 0 |
Repository Staff Only: item control page