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Detection of an observed 135 year ocean temperature change from limited data

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journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-17, 22:24 authored by William HobbsWilliam Hobbs, Willis, JK
Recent work comparing historical hydrographic data with modern Argo observations shows a long-term change in the global ocean temperature. The magnitude of this change is greater than estimates of late 20th century warming, and implies a century-scale change in the global oceans. Using global coupled climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 suite of simulations, we assess to what extent this observed temperature difference can be attributed to a genuine long-term warming trend. After accounting for natural variability and sampling errors, we find convincing evidence that there has indeed been a century-scale anthropogenic warming of the global ocean up to the present day, and a strong possibility of anthropogenic warming from 1873 to 1955. The estimated 1873-1955 ocean warming implies a net top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance of 0.1 ± 0.06 Wm-2, and a thermosteric global mean sea level rise of 0.50 ± 0.2 mma-1.

History

Publication title

Geophysical Research Letters

Volume

40

Issue

10

Pagination

2252-2258

ISSN

0094-8276

Department/School

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies

Publisher

Amer Geophysical Union

Place of publication

2000 Florida Ave Nw, Washington, USA, Dc, 20009

Rights statement

Copyright 2013 American Geophysical Union

Repository Status

  • Open

Socio-economic Objectives

Global effects of climate change (excl. Australia, New Zealand, Antarctica and the South Pacific) (excl. social impacts)

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