Vibrio parahaemolyticus can accumulate and grow in oysters stored without refrigeration, representing a potential food safety risk. High temperatures during oyster storage can lead to an increase in total viable bacteria counts, decreasing product shelf life. Therefore, a predictive tool that allows the estimation of both V. parahaemolyticus populations and total viable bacteria counts in parallel is needed. A stochastic model was developed to quantitatively assess the populations of V. parahaemolyticus and total viable bacteria in Pacific oysters for six different supply chain scenarios. The stochastic model encompassed operations from oyster farms through consumers and was built using risk analysis software. Probabilistic distributions and predictions for the percentage of Pacific oysters containing V. parahaemolyticus and high levels of viable bacteria at the point of consumption were generated for each simulated scenario. This tool can provide valuable information about V. parahaemolyticus exposure and potential control measures and can help oyster companies and regulatory agencies evaluate the impact of product quality and safety during cold chain management. If coupled with suitable monitoring systems, such models could enable preemptive action to be taken to counteract unfavorable supply chain conditions.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Research Division:	Engineering
Research Group:	Food Sciences
Research Field:	Food Packaging, Preservation and Safety
Objective Division:	Health
Objective Group:	Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health)
Objective Field:	Food Safety
UTAS Author:	Fernandez-Piquer, J (Dr Judith Fernandez-Piquer)
UTAS Author:	Bowman, JP (Associate Professor John Bowman)
UTAS Author:	Ross, T (Professor Tom Ross)
UTAS Author:	Tamplin, ML (Professor Mark Tamplin)
ID Code:	88833
Year Published:	2013
Web of Science® Times Cited:	7
Deposited By:	Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture
Deposited On:	2014-02-18
Last Modified:	2015-02-02
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